blockade Taiwan 結果共2筆

A survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that a crisis similar to the large-scale military exercises China conducted near Taiwan in 1995-96 is likely to occur in 2024. The survey, conducted in late 2023, revealed that about 67% of American and 57% of Taiwanese scholars anticipate such a crisis. However, experts believe that China is currently unable to successfully invade Taiwan. Instead, they suggest that China may pursue actions of isolation or blockade against Taiwan within the next five years. The survey defines a ＂Taiwan Strait crisis＂ as a significant escalation of tensions accompanied by major People’s Liberation Army exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwan and reaffirming China’s threats of force. Factors contributing to these views include China’s reaction to Taiwan’s election results, negative assessments of U.S.-China relations, and the belief that the November meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not sufficiently stabilize relations to reduce the potential for a crisis.

A survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) reveals that only 26% of U.S. experts and 17% of Taiwanese experts believe that China has the military capability to carry out a ＂joint island landing operation＂ within the next five years. The study, which surveyed 52 U.S. experts and 35 Taiwanese experts, found that most agreed that China lacks the ability to effectively implement a joint maritime, land, and air invasion of Taiwan. However, 90% of U.S. experts and 62% of Taiwanese experts believe that China could isolate or blockade Taiwan in the next five years, primarily as a commercial action. This action would be conducted by China’s Coast Guard or other law enforcement vessels, not its military. Additionally, 80% of U.S. experts and 60% of Taiwanese experts believe that China could implement a blockade of Taiwan, which would involve both commercial and military activities led by China’s military. Taiwanese experts generally had a more conservative viewpoint on China’s execution abilities compared to their American counterparts when it came to perceived threats from mainland China.